Elif YİĞİT KURTULUŞ: Labor Force Structure of Turkey and A Comparison with the European Union Countries. (Unpublished Master Thesis, Ankara, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, 1999.)
The objectives of the thesis are to introduce labour force projection methods, to develop working life tables for males and females for 1975-1990 period and to make a brief comparison of economic activity rates of Union countries and Turkey.
Regarding the labour force projection methods, direct extrapolation and cohort projection methods are used. In applying the direct extrapolation method two types of correction coefficients are introduced in the analysis. It is founded that for female economic activity rate projections direct extrapolation method with correction coefficient 1 and for male activity rate projections direct extrapolation with correction coefficient 2 should be used. Cohort projections of male activity rates show that the future activity rates will be lower than the ones in 1995. The activity rate of 80.8 for 20-24 age group in 1995 declines to 72 in 2000. The rate for the 20-24 age cohort declines to 89 whereas it is 97 in 1995. The cohort activity rates decline gradually for females as in male activity rates.
The working life tables give an indication of expected average number of working years after a given age by using economic activity rates and the appropriate life table. The tables constructed in this study assume that mortality rates of the general population and the labour force are same.
Working life tables come with the result that the average active years expected to be lived by active survivors has declined during 1975-1990 period. The retirement rate has started to increase in younger ages. For the prime working age 35-39 for males the average active years expected to be lives is 31.4 in 1975, 27.7 in 1980, 26.8 in 1985 and, 27.2 in 1990. There is a slight increase in 1990 due to the increase in total expectation of life in this year for that age group
As for the female working life tables, one point is important to note. The entry and retirement process of females is not clear as in males. Women enter to or retire from the labour force several times due to marriage, divorce, childcare. It seems that there happens retirements in 20-39 age group and entries in 40-49 age group. Therefore it is strongly suggested that the working life tables of females should be constructed for single age-groups to understand the entry-retirement process clearly.
The last part of the study provides a comparison of activity rates between European Union and Turkey. The aging population of the European Union and the declining trend in the male activity rates increase the importance of Turkey's situation with young population potential. The projections show that Turkey will have a comparative advantage in activity rates upon European Union countries.